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- DescriptionThis is the most sophisticated and up-to-date ecometric analysis of business cycles w available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been ackwledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether ecomic expansions and contractions tend to die of old age. Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how ecomic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the ecomy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future ecomic activity. They show here that the index of leading ecomic indicators is a poor predictor of future ecomic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced ecometric techniques, including nparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.
- Author(s)Francis X. Diebold,Glenn D. Rudebusch
- PublisherPrinceton University Press
- Date of Publication23/03/1999
- SubjectEconomics: Professional & General
- Place of PublicationNew Jersey
- Country of PublicationUnited States
- ImprintPrinceton University Press
- Content Note83 tables 44 line illus.
- Weight799 g
- Width152 mm
- Height229 mm
- Spine37 mm
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