The ecomy is so powerful in determining the results of U.S. presidential elections that political scientists can predict winners and losers with amazing accuracy long before the campaigns start. But if it is true that it's the ecomy, Stupid, why do incumbents in good ecomies sometimes lose? The reason, Lynn Vavreck argues, is that what matters is t just the state of the ecomy but how candidates react to it. By demonstrating more precisely than ever before how candidates and their campaigns affect the ecomic vote, The Message Matters provides a powerful new way of understanding past elections--and predicting future ones. Vavreck examines the past sixty years of presidential elections and offers a new theory of campaigns that explains why electoral victory requires more than simply being the candidate favored by prevailing ecomic conditions. Using data from presidential elections since 1952, she reveals why, when, and how campaign messages make a difference--and when they can outweigh ecomic predictors of election outcomes. The Message Matters does more than show why candidates favored by the ecomy must build their campaigns around ecomic messages. Vavreck's theory also explains why candidates disadvantaged by the ecomy must try to focus their elections on necomic issues that meet exacting criteria--and why this is so hard to do.
Lynn Vavreck is associate professor of political science at the University of California, Los Angeles. She is coeditor of Campaign Reform: Insights and Evidence and coprincipal investigator of the Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project.