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Probably Not : Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference...
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“good condition with some wear. There is a small dark spot on lower cover. Please view photos.”
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A book that has been read but is in good condition. Very minimal damage to the cover including scuff marks, but no holes or tears. The dust jacket for hard covers may not be included. Binding has minimal wear. The majority of pages are undamaged with minimal creasing or tearing, minimal pencil underlining of text, no highlighting of text, no writing in margins. No missing pages. See the seller’s listing for full details and description of any imperfections.
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eBay item number:255614815922
Item specifics
- Condition
- Good
- Seller notes
- “good condition with some wear. There is a small dark spot on lower cover. Please view photos.”
- Country/Region of Manufacture
- United States
- Subject
- Statistics
- Original/Facsimile
- Original
- ISBN
- 9780470184011
About this product
Product Identifiers
Publisher
Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, John
ISBN-10
0470184019
ISBN-13
9780470184011
eBay Product ID (ePID)
64060922
Product Key Features
Number of Pages
328 Pages
Publication Name
Probably Not : Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference
Language
English
Publication Year
2008
Subject
Probability & Statistics / Stochastic Processes, Probability & Statistics / General
Type
Textbook
Subject Area
Mathematics
Format
Trade Paperback
Dimensions
Item Height
0.7 in
Item Weight
16.9 Oz
Item Length
9.3 in
Item Width
6.2 in
Additional Product Features
Intended Audience
Scholarly & Professional
LCCN
2007-050155
Dewey Edition
22
Reviews
"The book is a very good tool for students and specialists in different areas who do not like advanced statistics, but are obliged to understand, a least partly, the process of decision making." ( International Statistical Review , December 2008) "The fact that Dworsky uses examples from many fields, and discusses topics not usually covered in beginning course, may also increase student interest in pursuing statistics at a more advanced level." ( MAA Reviews, July 2008)
Illustrated
Yes
Dewey Decimal
519.5/4
Table Of Content
Introduction. 1. An Introduction to Probability. Predicting The Future. Rule Making. Random Events and Probability. The Lottery {Very Improbable Events and Large Data Sets}. Coin Flipping {Fair Games, Looking Backwards For Insight}. The Coin Flip Strategy That Can't Lose. The Prize Behind The Door {Looking Backwards For Insight, Again}. The Checker Board {Dealing With Only Part Of The Data Set}. 2. Probability Distribution Functions And Some Basics. The Probability Distribution Function. Averages And Weighted Averages. Expected Values. The Basic Coin Flip Game. The Standard Deviation. The Cumulative Distribution Function. The Confidence Interval. Final Points. 3. Building a Bell. 4. Random Walks. The One Dimensional Random Walk. What Probability Really Means. Diffusion. 5. Life Insurance and Social Security. Insurance as Gambling. Life Tables. Birth Rates and Population Stability. Life Tables, Again. Premiums. Social Security - Sooner Or Later'. 6. Binomial Probabilities. The Binomial Probability Formula. Permutations And Combinations. Large Number Approximations. The Poisson Distribution. Disease Clusters. Clusters. 7. Pseudorandom Numbers and Monte Carlo Simulations. Pseudorandom Numbers. The Middle Square PSNG. The Linear Congruential PSNG. A Normal Distribution Generator. An Arbitrary Distribution Generator. Monte Carlo Simulations. A League Of Our Own. 8. Some Gambling Games In Detail. The Basic Coin Flip Game. The Gantt Chart. The Ultimate "Winning Strategy". The Game Show. Parimutuel Betting. 9. Traffic Lights And Traffic. Outsmarting A Traffic Light'. Many Lights And Many Cars. Simulating Traffic Flow - The Simulation. Simulation Results. 10. Combined And Conditional Probabilities. Functional Notation. Conditional Probability. Medical Test Results. The Shared Birthday Problem. 11. Scheduling And Waiting. Scheduling Appointments In The Doctor's Office. Lunch With A Friend. Waiting For A Bus. 12. Stock Market Portfolios. 13. Benford, Parrondo and Simpson. Benford's Law. Parrondo's Paradox. Simpson's Paradox. 14. Networks, Infectious Disease Propagation and Chain Letters. Degrees Of Separation. Propagation Along Networks. Some Other Uses Of Networks. Neighborhood Chains. 15. Bird Counting. A Walk In The Woods. A Model Of Bird Flying Habits. Spotting A Bird. Putting It All Together. 16. Statistical Mechanics And Heat. Statistical Mechanics. Thermodynamics. 17. Introduction To Statistical Analysis. Sampling. Sample Distributions and Standard Deviations. Estimating Population Average From A Sample. The Student-T Distribution. Polling Statistics. Did A Sample Come From A Given Population'. 18. Chaos and Quanta. Chaos. Probability In Quantum Mechanics.
Synopsis
An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: * How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights * Why different gambling casino strategies ultimately offer players no advantage * How to estimate how many different birds of one species are seen on a walk through the woods Seemingly random events-coin flip games, the Central Limit Theorem, binomial distributions and Poisson distributions, Parrando's Paradox, and Benford's Law-are addressed and treated through key concepts and methods in probability. In addition, fun-to-solve problems including "the shared birthday" and "the prize behind door number one, two, or three" are found throughout the book, which allow readers to test and practice their new probability skills. Requiring little background knowledgeof mathematics, readers will gain a greater understanding of the many daily activities and events that involve random processes and statistics. Combining the mathematics of probability with real-world examples, Probably Not is an ideal reference for practitioners and students who would like to learn more about the role of probability and statistics in everyday decision making., An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including the confidence factor and random walks, readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling casino strategies ultimately offer players no advantage How to estimate how many different birds of one species are seen on a walk through the woods Seemingly random events--coin flip games, the Central Limit Theorem, binomial distributions and Poisson distributions, Parrando's Paradox, and Benford's Law--are addressed and treated through key concepts and methods in probability. In addition, fun-to-solve problems including the shared birthday and the prize behind door number one, two, or three are found throughout the book, which allow readers to test and practice their new probability skills. Requiring little background knowledge of mathematics, readers will gain a greater understanding of the many daily activities and events that involve random processes and statistics. Combining the mathematics of probability with real-world examples, Probably Not is an ideal reference for practitioners and students who would like to learn more about the role of probability and statistics in everyday decision making., Probably Not is intended to be both entertaining and educational in an area that is central to everyday life. The examples provided in the book exemplify how we are living in a statistical world, what we can expect, what we really know based upon the information at hand, and also explains when we only think we know something., An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling casino strategies ultimately offer players no advantage How to estimate how many different birds of one species are seen on a walk through the woods Seemingly random events coin flip games, the Central Limit Theorem, binomial distributions and Poisson distributions, Parrando's Paradox, and Benford's Law are addressed and treated through key concepts and methods in probability. In addition, fun-to-solve problems including "the shared birthday" and "the prize behind door number one, two, or three" are found throughout the book, which allow readers to test and practice their new probability skills. Requiring little background knowledge of mathematics, readers will gain a greater understanding of the many daily activities and events that involve random processes and statistics. Combining the mathematics of probability with real-world examples, Probably Not is an ideal reference for practitioners and students who would like to learn more about the role of probability and statistics in everyday decision making., An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling casino strategies ultimately offer players no advantage How to estimate how many different birds of one species are seen on a walk through the woods Seemingly random events--coin flip games, the Central Limit Theorem, binomial distributions and Poisson distributions, Parrando's Paradox, and Benford's Law--are addressed and treated through key concepts and methods in probability. In addition, fun-to-solve problems including "the shared birthday" and "the prize behind door number one, two, or three" are found throughout the book, which allow readers to test and practice their new probability skills. Requiring little background knowledge of mathematics, readers will gain a greater understanding of the many daily activities and events that involve random processes and statistics. Combining the mathematics of probability with real-world examples, Probably Not is an ideal reference for practitioners and students who would like to learn more about the role of probability and statistics in everyday decision making.
LC Classification Number
QA279.2.D96 2008
Item description from the seller
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- 3***9 (656)- Feedback left by buyer.Past 6 monthsVerified purchaseFast despatch and received well packaged, as described/pictured and lovely communication - thanks for your kind note and great order! Much appreciated from the UK! 🫶🏻
- l***s (58)- Feedback left by buyer.Past yearVerified purchaseThe appearance in the photo is good and the seller description matched the product delivered. The book is in very good quality and the correct condition stated. The seller took care in packaging which a great value. This is a Great Seller.Writing with Clarity and Style : A Guide to Rhetorical Devices for... (#256682883798)
- -***0 (1)- Feedback left by buyer.Past yearVerified purchaseThe item came well packaged with bubble wrap. The book was just as described by the seller. I was skeptical at first but I’m surprised how well it came in. Thanks!Human Biology : Concepts and Current Issues By Michael D. Johnson (#256716160736)
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Seller feedback (46)
- 3***9 (656)- Feedback left by buyer.Past 6 monthsVerified purchaseFast despatch and received well packaged, as described/pictured and lovely communication - thanks for your kind note and great order! Much appreciated from the UK! 🫶🏻
- l***s (58)- Feedback left by buyer.Past yearVerified purchaseThe appearance in the photo is good and the seller description matched the product delivered. The book is in very good quality and the correct condition stated. The seller took care in packaging which a great value. This is a Great Seller.Writing with Clarity and Style : A Guide to Rhetorical Devices for... (#256682883798)
- -***0 (1)- Feedback left by buyer.Past yearVerified purchaseThe item came well packaged with bubble wrap. The book was just as described by the seller. I was skeptical at first but I’m surprised how well it came in. Thanks!Human Biology : Concepts and Current Issues By Michael D. Johnson (#256716160736)