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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Paperback, 2008)

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Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Title: The Black Swan. Why are all forecasters con-artists?. Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper?. Format: Paperback. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them.

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The Black Swan is a concept that will change the way you look at the world. Black Swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions, to events in our own lives. A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principle characteristics- it's unpredictable; carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. Nassim Nicholas Taleb reveals that we are hard-wired not to truly estimate risk, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and shows us how to face the world.